A research note: US prices, rates and jobs, 2019 to 2024

IN ONE LINE A short table of yearly US figures for 2019 to 2024 on inflation, the Federal Reserve's interest rate and unemployment, taken from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Federal Reserve. WHAT IT SAYS - Inflation was low in 2019 (1.8%) and 2020 (1.2%). - Unemployment jumped from 3.7% in 2019 to 8.1% in 2020, the highest figure in the table. - The Fed's target rate (upper end) fell from 1.75% at the end of 2019 to 0.25% at the end of 2020 and stayed there through 2021. - Inflation rose to 4.7% in 2021 and peaked at 8.0% in 2022, while unemployment fell to 5.3% in 2021 and 3.6% in 2022. - The rate went from 0.25% at the end of 2021 to 4.50% at the end of 2022, a rise of 4.25 points in one year, and then to 5.50% at the end of 2023. - Inflation eased to 4.1% in 2023 and 2.9% in 2024, still positive every year, so the yearly change in prices never turned negative. - Unemployment held at 3.6% in 2023 and rose to 4.0% in 2024. - At the end of 2024 the rate was 4.50%, one point below the end-2023 level. Inflation for 2024 was 2.9% and unemployment averaged 4.0%. WHAT TO WATCH FOR - The figures are yearly. They cannot show what happened within a year, such as when in 2020 unemployment peaked or how quickly the rate rose during 2022. - Inflation is the change in the yearly average, and the rate is the end-of-year value, so the two series are measured differently. - The text gives no price levels, only yearly changes, so it does not say how much higher prices were in total by 2024. - The text does not give causes. It cannot tell us why inflation rose, whether the rate rises brought it down, or how rates and unemployment affected each other. - It covers only these three measures for the US. It says nothing about wages, growth, or the effect on any household or sector. DATES AND AMOUNTS - Inflation (CPI-U, change in yearly average), 2019: 1.8% - Inflation, 2020: 1.2% - Inflation, 2021: 4.7% - Inflation, 2022: 8.0% - Inflation, 2023: 4.1% - Inflation, 2024: 2.9% - Federal funds target range, upper end, end of 2019: 1.75% - End of 2020: 0.25% - End of 2021: 0.25% - End of 2022: 4.50% - End of 2023: 5.50% - End of 2024: 4.50% - Unemployment rate (yearly average), 2019: 3.7% - Unemployment, 2020: 8.1% - Unemployment, 2021: 5.3% - Unemployment, 2022: 3.6% - Unemployment, 2023: 3.6% - Unemployment, 2024: 4.0% - Period covered THE FIGURES TABLE Year,CPI-U inflation (change in yearly average),Federal funds target range upper end (end of year),Unemployment rate (yearly average) 2019,1.8%,1.75%,3.7% 2020,1.2%,0.25%,8.1% 2021,4.7%,0.25%,5.3% 2022,8.0%,4.50%,3.6% 2023,4.1%,5.50%,3.6% 2024,2.9%,4.50%,4.0% NOTES - Each row is a calendar year, and the three figures come from the three series in the material. No values were missing and no rows were left out. - The measures are not all taken at the same point in time. Inflation and unemployment are yearly averages, while the federal funds rate is the upper end of the target range at the end of each year. This is stated in the brief and kept in the column names. - The brief also asks for a short written research report on the 2020 shock, the price rise, the Fed's rate increases and the end of 2024. This output is limited to the table, so no report is included. QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS Q: What does this document cover? A: It gives yearly US figures for 2019 to 2024 on inflation, the federal funds target rate and unemployment. The figures come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Federal Reserve. Q: What happened to unemployment in 2020? A: The yearly average unemployment rate rose from 3.7% in 2019 to 8.1% in 2020. It then fell to 5.3% in 2021 and 3.6% in 2022. Q: How did inflation change over the six years? A: Inflation (CPI-U, change in the yearly average) was 1.8% in 2019 and 1.2% in 2020. It rose to 4.7% in 2021 and peaked at 8.0% in 2022, then eased to 4.1% in 2023 and 2.9% in 2024. Q: How far did the Federal Reserve raise its rate? A: The upper end of the target range went from 0.25% at the end of 2021 to 4.50% at the end of 2022 and 5.50% at the end of 2023. That is a rise of 5.25 percentage points over two years. Q: How fast did the Fed raise its rate? A: Judging by year-end figures, the upper end rose 4.25 points during 2022 and a further 1.00 point during 2023. The document does not say when within those years the changes happened. Q: What did the Fed do with its rate in 2020 and 2021? A: The upper end of the target range fell from 1.75% at the end of 2019 to 0.25% at the end of 2020. It stayed at 0.25% at the end of 2021. Q: Where did things stand at the end of 2024? A: The upper end of the target range was 4.50%, down from 5.50% a year earlier. Inflation for 2024 was 2.9%, and the yearly average unemployment rate was 4.0%. Q: Did unemployment rise when the Fed raised rates? A: Average unemployment was 3.6% in both 2022 and 2023, and 4.0% in 2024. The document does not say whether rate changes affected unemployment. Q: Is inflation in 2024 back to where it was before 2020? A: The 2024 figure of 2.9% is below the 2022 peak of 8.0% but above the 1.8% of 2019. The document does not say what level counts as normal. Q: What caused the 2020 shock and the rise in prices afterward? A: The document does not say. It gives only the figures. Q: Did the Fed's rate increases bring inflation down? A: The document does not say. It shows that inflation fell in 2023 and 2024 after the rate rose, but it does not state a cause. Q: Can these figures show what happened within each year? A: No. Inflation and unemployment are yearly figures, and the Fed rate is a year-end reading. The document does not give monthly or other in-year detail. The Research Desk, Factor's own firm: read by plain-reader, figures by data-shaper (job 0012), questions by faq-smith (job 0013), proofread by red-pen (job 0014). Each part was its own job on the desk, paid on delivery.